l e a d i n g e d g e t r u c k i n g
Year-2000 Computer Jitters
Do we really need to be afraid
John Bendel, Senior EditorIf you use a computer in your business, you should be worried about the turn of the century — now just two years away. No, truckers are not immune from the glitches due to arrive at midnight, Jan. 1, 2000. In fact, most big truckers are working hard to avoid them. Many smaller ones, however, are not. They are taking a big risk.
THE Y2K ISSUE
Computer programmers have long expressed the year in two-digit shorthand to save on valuable memory capacity. Particularly in the early days of computing, they routinely expressed a date — say, Dec. 25, 1967 — as 122567 (it might look more familiar as 12-25-67). Otherwise, the date would have been 12251967. The two-digit difference saved memory bytes at a time when they were a more precious computer resource. Software that works with six-digit dates will be in trouble when six digits dates don’t adequately define the year. On Jan. 1, 2000, the date on those computers and programs will become 010100. How will programs interpret that? That will depend on the software code. Experts says some programs will assume it is the year 1900 and generate inaccurate data that could cause chaos, especially for financial programs. Imagine making a 15-minute phone call at midnight on Jan. 1, 2000, and being billed for a call more than 52 million minutes long because phone company computers would believe it began in 1900. Other programs will simply crash or hang up. Either way, there will be trouble. We know because it has already happened. Bankers first confronted the issue in the early 1970s, when 30-year mortgages with expiration dates in the next century began crashing mainframe computers. As a result of that experience, most banks were well-prepared when they began issuing credit cards with year-2000 expiration dates. Most banks are already prepared for the turn of the century — but not all their customers are. One California grocery chain’s computers locked up when processing credit cards with year-2000 expiration dates. That’s the sort of unpredictable problem that faces truckers in the next few years. But problems will not be limited to financial programs. They could occur in any date-sensitive context or on any date-sensitive computer — including PCs of fairly recent vintage. Since we still like shorthand of all kinds, the year 2000 problem is frequently referred to simply as Y2K. THE SCOPE OF THE PROBLEM
According to some experts — many self-proclaimed — the year 2000 will bring catastrophe. Even if one company’s system has been brought up to date, they say, it will be susceptible to tainted data from systems that have not. Edward Yardenic, chief economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Inc., a London-based investment bank, predicts a worldwide recession in 2000 due to computer disruptions. This kind of prophecy is great news for an industry that has sprung up to help solve year-2000 problems. Enterprising businesses offer everything from near-magic, one-shot computer solutions to squads of unemployed programmers in Asia to comb through millions of lines of old computer code. Many businesses are buying outside help. Menlo Park, CA-based Consolidated Freightways, for example, has two outside vendors working on some 20 million lines of computer code. Chief Information Officer Matt Saikkonen told Heavy Duty Trucking that of his 90-person Information Services staff, 12 are working on the year 2000. On the other hand, some experts say there will be no recession —that, in fact, 2000 will arrive with few glitches at all and none worth losing sleep over. But even these debunkers don’t deny a problem exists. Catastrophe will be avoided, they say, because most companies — and yes, government agencies — are working hard enough on the problem that it will be all but solved in the next three years. Whether or not the Y2K problems lead to global catastrophe, they will surely cause grief for those companies that have not found problems and corrected them. WHAT TO WORRY ABOUT
Because some state departments, and perhaps some federal agencies, might not be totally prepared for the year 2000, enforcement, licensing and reporting issues could arise. Perhaps the most obvious is driver’s licenses. In the next couple of years, drivers may receive licenses good only until 1999. They and their companies may have to sweat out bureaucratic efforts to deal with Y2K. But most of the problems will be at the company level, where many top managers attacked the problem after learning they could be subject to negligence lawsuits if company systems crash. Some insurance companies are offering policies to cover possible Y2K troubles. The premiums are reported to be very high. In our own industry, Akron, OH-based Roadway Express is approaching the problem from top to bottom. Pam Kelly, director of information technology, said she receives monthly reports from liaisons in each Roadway department. Their job is to find potential year-2000 problems, create a remediation plan and carry it out. Potential problems could be far from Roadway’s computer department, she said. They could include everything from on-board computers to free-standing desktop PCs. SMALLER FIRMS AT RISK
Partly as a result of potential PC problems, smaller companies may be at the greatest risk. But PCs aren’t the only worry. According to Tom Weisz, CEO and president of Beachwood, OH-based TMW Systems Inc., a trucking software supplier, smaller carriers should be concerned about older, custom-written software. It’s likely to be a “small, regional carrier who had a system made — who had his brother-in-law do it,” said Weisz. “His system is not going to be year-2000 compliant.” Furthermore, Weisz warned, major shippers wary of year-2000 complications are asking carriers to certify that their software and electronic documentation will meet year-2000 standards. Shippers are worried about bad data from vendors affecting their own systems. “If you cannot certify that you are compliant or will be in a specified time, they will discontinue doing business with you,” he said. Another software executive, T. Edward Hudson, president of Oklahoma City, OK-based Innovative Computing Corp., said the greatest risk is not acting quickly. “If they haven’t started on the year 2000,” he said of carriers, “they probably have a very serious problem because of the shortage of resources to address the problem.” Those resources include companies like TMW and Innovative, which can replace older custom software with packaged, year-2000 compliant systems. Hudson said the year-2000 issue highlights the advantages of “off-the-shelf software.” “It shows that if a more standard set of software reduces the modifications a customer does, the easier it is to address some of these issues and take advantage of enhancements that system suppliers put into products on an ongoing basis,” said Hudson. Clearly, the next three years will be big ones for suppliers of new, year-2000-compliant computer systems. WHERE TO FIND HELP
Experts agree that where Y2K problems are concerned, trucking is not unique. While new software suppliers like TMW and Innovative specialize in trucking, most companies involved in remediating Y2K problems do not specialize by industry. Therefore, generic resources can help. The quickest place to find Y2K help is on the World Wide Web, where a number of sites are devoted to the subject. Most include listings and advertising of companies in the Y2K remediation business. Among them are www.year2000.com and www.computerworld.com/year2000/index.asp. SIDEBARS
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