Was That Last Labor Shortage Just Practice?
The next one could be twice as bad. Your timing could be everything.
DOUG CONDRA
PRESIDENT/PUBLISHER
Starting about now, the U.S. is headed for a labor shortage the likes of which we've never seen. That's according to a new book co-authored by three work-force specialists.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics would seem to support their contention. It predicts that over the next seven years the number of jobs in the nation will climb from today's 146 million to 167 million. That's an average of 3 million new jobs a year.
Problem: The forecasters say that by 2010, there will only be 157 million workers available for those jobs. That's a 10-million shortfall developing over those seven years.
The book, Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People, says that until the mid-1990s, we had more people than jobs. Then in the late '90s we had more jobs than people, and employers had to compete for talent. That ended with the economic slowdown that brought widespread layoffs in 2000-2002.
Now, say the authors, the rest of this decade "will make the tight labor market of the late 1990s look like a practice session. We will experience a severe labor shortageÉat least until 2010.
"Employers will not be able to solve their problems by raising their bids for talent," they say. "They must fundamentally change the way they do business."
The authors claim that's because employers have been lulled into complacency by the economic slowdown. And these days, even employees who kept their jobs through the slowdown aren't necessarily happy where they are.
"Employees are cocooning, waiting for the opportunity to escape from bosses they hate," says the book. "When the crisis comes, it will shake the roots of the American economy."
Well, we might write off those statements by saying these folks are trying to sell more books. I'm not so sure how many people actually hate their bosses. And I thought our roots had already been pretty well shaken over the past three years or so.
But there's food for thought here for anyone running trucks. When things pick up — and they will—how will you approach filling your expansion needs?
There are currently a little under 10 million truck-related jobs in the U.S., of which 3 million are drivers. If Impending Crisis estimates are at all accurate, we could add over a million truck-related jobs (including 300,000 driving jobs) over the next seven years.
When you figure in turnover — especially among drivers — your business is going to be smack-dab in the middle of that labor shortage.
Remember the last driver shortage, when freight sat on docks and trucks were parked against the fence for lack of people?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics says at its worst, at the end of the '90s, there were 4.7 million more jobs than people. That made it very tough for trucking to compete with other industries for employees.
Now, says the new book, we're headed for a shortfall of people that's more than double the level of that era. It also says successful companies will be the ones who plan ahead to (1) use technology to its fullest, and (2) become the "employers of choice" to attract and retain workers.
If you don't have an employee expansion plan in place, now might be a good time to consider it. You can check out Impending Crisis at www.impendingcrisis.com.
