Buy Now, Pre-Buy Later
If October '02 emissions made your brain ache, wait and see what's in store for '07.
DEBORAH WHISTLER
EDITOR
If you need new trucks, but are still worried about the performance and reliability of the new lower emissions engines, consider this: The next round of emission regs will make Oct. '02 look like a fix-it ticket for a broken taillight.
You might just want to factor the severity of the 2007 emissions hurdle into your buying plans.
Besides that, there are lots of good reasons to buy now. A primary one is the fact that truck and engine manufacturers are all offering big incentives and warranties to boost consumer confidence in their new products.
Components, services and warranties that would otherwise cost extra are now being offered free by some OEMs and can help offset the higher cost of the new engines.
While concern with reliability of new technology engines is justified, you must also consider the potential for failure of components in older trucks that are kept in service too long. The longer you run a rig, the higher the maintenance expense and the chance for breakdown and downtime.
The question is, how long can you afford to keep running your older equipment?
Word on the performance of the new engines is good so far. Testing shows no major problems, and builders claim the EGR systems need no special maintenance. Any problems in the first few years will be covered by warranty anyway.
Fuel economy worries might also be out of proportion. In steady highway cruising, the new EGR diesels might get slightly worse mileage than pre-October '02 engines — it might mean an extra 200 to 600 gallons over 100,000 miles. That's really not that much compared with total consumption. And if you're operating vehicles '95 or older, the new EGR engines might just offer better fuel economy.
Also on the fuel economy front: Industrywide, it's calculated that trucks idle away more than 840 million gallons of fuel each year. It's also estimated that if all Class 7 and 8 trucks would use anti-idling devices available on the market today, the total fuel savings would be as much as 0.6% of all fuel consumed for surface transportation in the U.S.
As for pollution, EPA just finished a diesel idling study with emissions testing. The agency's web site says that, on average, an idling truck produces 21 tons of carbon dioxide and 0.3 tons of nitrogen oxides per year.
Rather than avoid the new-technology engines, it might be wiser and cheaper (and more environmentally friendly) to install anti-idling devices and provide incentives for drivers to reduce idling time.
You also need to do some long-range planning for the big emissions event that hits in 2007. If you think 2002 is bad, you only have four more years before you're faced with even harder purchasing decisions.
Many fleets have said they want to wait and see what happens with the new EGR engines. Let some other trucker be the guinea pig.
But you might want to rethink that. The 2007 regs will be so much more strict that some predict the technology developed to reach the current emissions bar won't even work. Those super-clean engines will likely suffer much more severe fuel economy losses.
You can plan on seeing a buying frenzy in late 2006 as carriers attempt to avoid 2007 engines. And, since most fleets operate on a four-year trade cycle, the smart thing might be to buy now, run the trucks until mid-'06 and then trade for new ones with the 2002 EGR technology. Any bugs in the '02. engines will likely be worked out by then. And your '03 truck will bring top dollar because those buying used will want a pre-'07 engine.
There is little chance that the 2007 emissions regs will be reversed or diminished in severity. And 2007 will come sooner than you think. If you don't buy soon, you might be sorry you waited.
