The Driver Debacle
Trucks are already parked because there are not enough drivers to move them. Labor analysts warn that in a few years the driver crisis will be worse – much worse. This series will give you tools to cope.
Deborah Lockridge, Senior Editor
"The worker shortage in a few years will make today's tight labor market look like child's play," says Marc Bailey, CEO of the Atlanta-based firm TamingTurnover.
In 2008, the first of 7.2 million baby boomers will start retiring, and will continue to retire for 18 years, Bailey says – and there are only 4.6 million GenX workers to take their place. This aging phenomenon will hurt over-the-road truckload carriers unusually hard, because the average age of an OTR driver – estimated to be in the mid-40s – is already higher than the workforce in general.
Bailey's concerns are echoed by a 2005 report by Global Insight Inc. for the American Trucking Associations. The size of the white male population ages 35-54 – a demographic group that currently provides over half of all truck drivers – will decline by more than 3 million between 2004 and 2014. In addition, the annual rate of growth of the overall labor force will slow sharply.
Global Insight predicts that the supply of new long-haul truck drivers will grow at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent over the next 10 years, if present trends continue, such as the increasing number of Hispanic truck drivers.
However, the number of new truck drivers needed will grow at a faster pace during that same 10 years. In addition to an estimated 219,000 new truck drivers that must be found to replace drivers who will be retiring, economic growth will give rise to a need for a 2.2 percent average annual increase in the number of long-haul drivers – or an additional 320,000 jobs overall.
That's 539,000 drivers needed to meet economic expansion and replace drivers who are retiring, or about 54,000 a year. There is already a shortage of about 20,000 long-haul heavy truck drivers, notes the Global Insight report. It estimates that if nothing is done to correct the imbalance, that number will rise to 111,000 in 2014.
In addition, as the U.S. workforce overall tightens, over-the-road, truckload carriers will face more job competition from other industries.
Many OTR drivers will likely be drawn to the less-than-truckload market with its more stable lifestyle. Construction is another competitor. Throughout the 1990s, average earnings in long-distance trucking were about 6 percent to 7 percent above those in construction, according to the Global Insight report. But with the recession that began in early 2000, earnings dropped below those of construction. Earnings in trucking have made up some lost ground, but still average slightly below those for construction – a job where you're home every night.
Making the challenge even more difficult are regulatory factors, such as stiffer background checks for hazmat endorsements; an English language requirement that may limit the ability to attract drivers from among the growing number of Hispanic immigrants; and tighter federal health standards for high blood pressure.
"What will an OTR carrier do to hold onto his drivers?" Bailey asks. "Raise pay by 15 percent? Guarantee 20 to 25 nights at home per month? Raise pay and increase home time simultaneously?"
Only the very best OTR operators are going to thrive in the coming years, Bailey says. "OTR executives who take a 'wait and see' attitude will be destroyed by the human resource 'perfect storm' that is on the horizon."
Driver Crisis continued...
