@Dept:
Crystal Ball For Crashes
It doesn't take a psychic to know if a driver is likely to have an accident.
Deborah Whistler
Editor
You don't need a crystal ball to determine if one of your drivers is likely to be involved in an accident. A study released by the American Trucking Research Institute, "Predicting Truck Crash Involvement," is a groundbreaking analysis of more than a half million driver records to determine how driving history can help predict future crashes.
For instance, researchers found that a reckless driving violation increases the likelihood that the driver will be involved in an accident by an incredible 325 percent. An improper turn or erratic lane change doubles the probability of an accident.
If a driver has any of the following infractions, the likelihood of a crash increases by the respective percentage:
• Improper or erratic lane change – 100 percent
• Failure to yield right of way – 97 percent
• Improper turn conviction – 94 percent
• Failure to keep proper lane – 91 percent
• Past crash – 87 percent
• Improper lane change violation – 78 percent
These are just a few of the driver variables determined to be indicators that, if unchecked, could lead to accidents.
If you don't have a psychic on staff, you should definitely have a copy of "Predicting Truck Crash Involvement" in your reference library. The data can be used for screening and discipline.
Many fleet policies, for example, now make a reckless driving conviction automatic grounds for dismissal. But the real payoff is prevention.
As part of the study, ATRI researchers interviewed safety executives at major fleets with industry-recognized safety programs. They specifically asked about those risky behaviors identified in their analysis.
Some serious violations, such as reckless driving and excessive speeding, seemed to merit a universal response – termination. But safe fleets have a variety of approaches for most other infractions. A driver convicted of making an improper turn might be required to take some remedial training, undergo a road test with instructor feedback, meet one-on-one with a safety director, or all of the above.
A driver caught following too closely (which ups the crash probability 50 percent) might find himself sitting in front of a safety director for a thorough discussion and performance review.
There are rules and guidelines, but good carriers address citations and accidents on a case-by-case basis. The psychology of a situation is very important. There may be cases where a driver would be immediately terminated, but if the driver is a veteran with a long history of safe driving, there may be something at play externally that you can help him resolve.
At Swift Transportation, many of its safety initiatives focus on specific driver behavior. Swift currently has a pilot program with Bendix and Qualcomm that alerts supervisors to critical events such as hard braking or when the vehicle stability system prevents a rollover. In one instance, a driver who was contacted immediately after a hard braking incident said another driver had pulled in front of him. Two hours later, however, the same driver had another hard braking event. The double incidents told safety managers that speed was likely an issue. It was an opportunity to coach that driver.
Pitt Ohio Express monitors event recorders for speeding or sudden stops. Pitt is a regional less-than-truckload carrier, thus it's easy to quickly set up a face-to-face meeting when a driver's behavior indicates a need for remedial action. The company maintains a safety database with every event in each driver's history. During counseling sessions, drivers get a chance to review and explain that history.
When an accident does occur, Pitt does a root-cause analysis. They drill down as far as they can to see what behavior caused the accident – not just looking to place blame on the driver. Sometimes it goes back to the dispatcher, supervisor or an event that occurred before the driver even left the terminal.
"Until recently, safety was a shotgun approach," says ATRI Vice President Dan Murray. "As an industry, we are constantly trying to understand how to target our efforts." The ATRI study gives fleet managers that much-needed focus.
To order the study, go to www.atri-online.org.
E-mail Deb Whistler at dwhistler@truckinginfo.com
